Every Next Fest, developers share their numbers on Twitter, Reddit, and Discord. Some are thrilled. Some are crushed. Most have no idea whether their results were actually good or not, because there's no centralized benchmark to compare against. I've been collecting and aggregating Next Fest performance data from dozens of post-mortems, developer surveys, and direct conversations. Here's what the numbers actually look like -- and more importantly, what separates the developers who walk away with a full wishlist from those who barely move the needle.
Why tracking Next Fest results matters
Next Fest isn't just a marketing event. It's a diagnostic tool. Your demo downloads, wishlist gains, and conversion rates during the fest tell you something critical: whether your game, your store page, and your marketing are working together or fighting each other.
If you skip the analysis and just move on, you're throwing away free data. Your Next Fest results can tell you whether your capsule image is compelling enough to stop a scroll, whether your demo hooks players or loses them, and whether your store page converts browsers into wishlisters. That data directly informs every decision you make between the fest and your launch. Developers who treat Next Fest as a test run -- and actually study the results -- consistently outperform those who treat it as a one-and-done marketing push.
Aggregated data: what "normal" Next Fest results look like
Before you spiral about your numbers, let's establish what typical ranges actually are. These are based on aggregated data from recent fests, covering a range of genres and team sizes.
Demo downloads
Most games that participate in Next Fest land somewhere in the 2,000 to 30,000 demo download range. The median sits around 5,000-8,000. Games below 2,000 downloads typically had visibility issues -- either the capsule didn't attract clicks in the fest browse page, or the game wasn't surfaced by Steam's recommendation system. Games above 15,000 downloads usually had at least one strong external driver: an existing audience, a viral moment, or a genre that's particularly popular with the fest-browsing crowd.
Wishlist gains
Typical wishlist gains during a single Next Fest run fall in the 1,000 to 15,000 range, with the median around 3,000-5,000. To be clear, these are net new wishlists added during the fest period itself -- not your total count. If you gained 3,000-5,000 wishlists during the fest, you had a solid showing. If you're in the 8,000+ range, you had a genuinely strong fest.
Wishlist conversion rate from demos
This is the metric that matters most: of the people who downloaded your demo, what percentage wishlisted your game? Across the data we've seen, that number typically falls in the 15-25% range. A 20% demo-to-wishlist conversion rate is healthy. Below 15% usually means the demo itself has a problem -- either it's not representative of the game's appeal, it's too buggy, or it doesn't end with a clear call to action. If you're above 25%, your demo is doing serious work for you.
If you haven't built your demo yet or want to gut-check your preparation, our Next Fest Prep Tool can help you plan and track everything.
Case study tiers: what separated strong from weak performers
Rather than cherry-picking individual success stories, I've grouped Next Fest participants into three tiers based on their wishlist gains. The patterns within each tier are remarkably consistent.
Strong performers: 10,000+ wishlists from a single fest
We've seen developers in this category share a few common traits. Their store pages were polished well before the fest started -- capsule images that read clearly at thumbnail size, screenshots showing actual gameplay with visual variety, and short descriptions that communicated the hook immediately. They didn't show up to the fest hoping their page would "be fine." They ran their capsule through a tool like our Capsule Validator and iterated until it worked.
Their demos were tight. Usually 20-40 minutes, showcasing the most exciting content rather than just the tutorial. Most importantly, every strong performer I've talked to had an explicit wishlist prompt at the end of their demo -- a screen that thanked the player and reminded them to wishlist. That single addition lifts conversion rates by a measurable margin.
These developers also livestreamed aggressively during the fest. I'm talking daily streams, sometimes twice a day, varying formats between gameplay, behind-the-scenes development, and Q&A sessions. Steam rewards livestreaming with better event page placement, and that visibility compounds over the week.
Finally, most of them didn't start from zero. They had some pre-existing audience -- a Discord with a few hundred members, a devlog following on social media, or a previous game that built recognition. That initial audience created early momentum, which the Steam algorithm then amplified.
Solid performers: 3,000-10,000 wishlists
This is the biggest group, and it's where most well-prepared indie developers land. The common thread here is that these developers did most things right but had one or two areas that held them back.
Often, the store page was good but not great. The capsule was decent but didn't pop against the competition in the fest browse page. Or the demo was enjoyable but slightly too long, leading to lower completion rates and fewer players reaching the wishlist prompt at the end. Sometimes the developer streamed a few times during the fest but not consistently enough to maintain placement on the event page.
The good news for this tier: these are all fixable problems. A capsule redesign, a tighter demo, and a more aggressive streaming schedule can move a solid performer into the strong performer category in their next fest. The capsule design guide is a good starting point for the visual side, and our Next Fest checklist covers the operational preparation.
Underperformers: fewer than 3,000 wishlists
This tier is painful, but understanding why these games underperformed is the most useful part of the data. The patterns here are clear.
The most common issue was a weak capsule image. In a fest with hundreds of games, your capsule is doing the first and most important job: stopping someone mid-scroll. Games with generic, hard-to-read, or visually muddy capsules simply didn't get clicked. Several developers in this tier told me they made their capsule the week before the fest and never tested it at small sizes. That's a fixable mistake, but it cost them dearly.
Second, demo quality issues. Crashes, confusing onboarding, or a demo that just didn't represent the game's best moments. Some developers put their tutorial as the demo, which is often the least exciting part of the game. Players have hundreds of demos to try during the fest -- if yours doesn't hook them in the first five minutes, they move on.
Third, no pre-existing audience and no external marketing push. The developers who showed up to Next Fest with no Discord, no social media following, and no outreach to press or content creators were essentially relying on Steam's organic discovery alone. That can work if your capsule and genre are strong, but it's a much harder path.
Fourth, genre mismatch. Some genres simply perform better in the Next Fest environment than others. Action games, roguelikes, and horror games tend to get more attention because they demo well and generate shareable moments. Slower-paced strategy games or narrative experiences can still do well, but they need stronger store page marketing to compensate for less inherently viral gameplay.
How Next Fest wishlists convert to launch sales
Here's the question everyone really wants answered: if you gain a bunch of wishlists during Next Fest, how many of those actually turn into sales?
Based on the data we've aggregated, Next Fest wishlists convert to purchases at a rate of roughly 15-20% within the first three months after launch. That's broadly in line with overall wishlist conversion rates, but with an important caveat: timing matters enormously.
If you launch within 1-3 months of your Next Fest, those wishlists are still fresh. The player remembers your game, the demo experience is still in their mind, and they're primed to buy. In this scenario, conversion rates tend to land at the higher end of that 15-20% range.
If you launch 6+ months after the fest, expect conversion to drop. Wishlists decay -- not technically, but practically. Players forget, lose interest, or get distracted by the hundred other games they wishlisted. Launching 9-12 months after a Next Fest and expecting those fest wishlists to convert well is setting yourself up for disappointment. The data consistently shows that recent wishlists convert at 2-3x the rate of old ones.
This has a practical implication for your release planning: if possible, schedule your Next Fest participation 1-3 months before your planned launch. That window maximizes the conversion value of every wishlist you gain during the event.
What to do if your Next Fest results were disappointing
First, don't panic. A bad Next Fest is not a death sentence for your game. It's a signal that something needs to change before launch, and you now have specific data to guide those changes.
Audit your capsule image
If your demo download numbers were low relative to your game's impressions during the fest, your capsule is likely the bottleneck. It's the first thing players see, and if it doesn't grab attention, nothing else matters. Run it through our Capsule Validator, study the capsule design guide, and look at what top-performing games in your genre are doing. Test multiple versions at thumbnail size. Ask people who don't know your game what they think it is just from the capsule.
Rework your demo
If downloads were reasonable but your demo-to-wishlist conversion was below 15%, the demo itself needs work. Ask yourself honestly: does the demo show the most exciting part of your game, or just the beginning? Is it too long? Does it end with a clear wishlist prompt? Did testers report bugs or confusion? Get fresh eyes on it. Watch someone play your demo who's never seen the game before. Their experience will tell you what needs to change.
Build an audience before your next attempt
If your visibility was the core issue, start building your audience now. Post devlog updates consistently, engage in communities where your target players hang out, reach out to small content creators who cover your genre, and build a Discord. You don't need a massive following -- even a few hundred engaged fans can create the early momentum that Steam's algorithm amplifies.
Consider your second fest
Valve allows you to participate in two Next Fests per game. If your first one was disappointing, your second attempt can be dramatically different with the right changes. Many developers have reported 3-5x improvement in their second fest after overhauling their capsule, tightening their demo, and building audience in between.
Planning for your next fest: data-driven improvements
If you have Next Fest data from a previous participation, use it to set specific targets for your next attempt. Here's a framework.
Demo downloads: If you were below 5,000, your capsule and discoverability need work. Set a target of 2x your previous download count and focus on capsule quality and pre-fest marketing.
Demo-to-wishlist conversion: If you were below 15%, your demo experience is the priority. Aim for 20%+ by reworking the demo flow, cutting weak sections, and ensuring a compelling end screen with a wishlist prompt.
Livestream hours: Developers who streamed 10+ hours during the fest consistently outperformed those who streamed less than 3 hours. Set a streaming schedule that covers multiple time zones and stick to it.
Pre-fest wishlist count: The games that do best at Next Fest often already have 1,000+ wishlists before the event starts. That baseline audience creates initial download velocity that the algorithm rewards. Spend the weeks before the fest building wishlists through your own marketing channels.
Track all of these metrics, compare them against the benchmarks in this post, and identify your biggest gap. Fixing your weakest area will almost always yield a bigger improvement than polishing your strongest.
Frequently asked questions
Is 3,000 wishlists from Next Fest a good result?
It's solidly in the middle of the pack. The median is around 3,000-5,000, so you're not underperforming -- but there's clear room to improve. Focus on the areas outlined in the case study tiers above. A capsule refresh, a tighter demo, and more consistent livestreaming could move you into the 5,000-10,000 range for your next fest. Check our Next Fest checklist for a full preparation breakdown.
How important is genre for Next Fest success?
Genre matters, but it's not destiny. Action games, roguelikes, and horror games naturally demo well and tend to see higher download numbers. But we've seen strategy games, farming sims, and narrative adventures break into the strong performer tier by having exceptional capsule images and polished demos. If your genre isn't inherently flashy, compensate with a store page that immediately communicates what makes your game compelling. The capsule design guide covers how to make any genre stand out visually.
Should I delay my launch if my Next Fest results were weak?
Possibly. If your Next Fest results revealed that your store page isn't converting or your demo has quality issues, launching immediately would mean launching with those same problems. A delay of 2-3 months to fix the specific issues the fest exposed is often worth it. Use that time to overhaul your capsule, rework your demo, and build more wishlists. The wishlist conversion rates data shows that launching with more recent wishlists converts better anyway.
Can a strong Next Fest make up for a small pre-existing audience?
Absolutely -- that's one of the best things about Next Fest. Steam provides massive organic visibility during the event that you'd never get on your own. We've seen developers with essentially no audience gain 5,000-10,000 wishlists from a single fest purely because their capsule was eye-catching and their demo was polished. You don't need a big following to succeed at Next Fest, but you do need a great store page and a great demo. Use the Next Fest Prep Tool to make sure you're not leaving anything on the table.
Ready to prepare for your next fest? Start with the Next Fest Prep Tool for a live countdown and task tracker, and run through our complete Steam Next Fest checklist to make sure nothing falls through the cracks. If your capsule needs work, run it through the Capsule Validator and read the capsule design guide. For a full store page audit, use the Steam Page Analyzer to catch issues before the fest starts.
Browse our genre-specific optimization guides for strategies tailored to your game type, and check the Steam Page Leaderboard to see how top games optimize their store pages.